?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fkurepository.keiseruniversity.edu.ni%2Fid%2Feprint%2F52%2F&rft.title=Polynomial+Model+Selection+with+Small+Samples%3A+Fitting%2C+Generalization%2C+and+Cross-Validation+in+the+Analysis+of+International+Tourism+in+Nicaragua+(2020%E2%80%932024)&rft.creator=Silwany+Garcia%2C+Sara+Samira&rft.subject=Probabilities.+Mathematical+statistics+%5BQA273-280%5D&rft.description=This+study+addresses+model+selection+in+data-scarce+regimes+using+five+annual+observations+of+international+tourism+arrivals+in+Nicaragua+(2020%E2%80%932024).+Four+candidate%0D%0Aspecifications+(linear%2C+quadratic%2C+cubic%2C+and+exponential)+are+fitted+and+evaluated+via+leave-one-out+cross-validation+(LOOCV)%2C+the+PRESS+statistic%2C+and+the+corrected+AICc.+The+results+demonstrate+that+R2+is+a+severely+biased+proxy+for+predictive+performance+when+p%2Fn%E2%89%A50.4.+The+cubic+model+(R2+%3D+0.971)+exhibits+an+out-of-sample+prediction+error+six+times+larger+than+that+of+the+linear+model+(PRESS+%3D+2.61+%C3%97106%0D%0Avs.+4.31+%C3%97105)+and+yields+physically+impossible+forecasts.+All+criteria+converge+on+the+linear+model+as+the+optimal+specification.+Projections+for+2025%E2%80%932030+with%0D%0A95%25+parametric+bootstrap+intervals+are+provided%2C+together+with+a+fully+reproducible+Python+pipeline.%0D%0A%0D%0A---------------------%0D%0A%0D%0AEste+estudio+aborda+la+selecci%C3%B3n+de+modelos+en+reg%C3%ADmenes+con+escasez+de+datos+utilizando+cinco+observaciones+anuales+de+llegadas+de+turistas+internacionales+a+Nicaragua+(2020-2024).+Se+ajustan+cuatro+especificaciones+candidatas+(lineal%2C+cuadr%C3%A1tica%2C+c%C3%BAbica+y+exponencial)+y+se+eval%C3%BAan+mediante+validaci%C3%B3n+cruzada+de+exclusi%C3%B3n+de+un+elemento+(LOOCV)%2C+el+estad%C3%ADstico+PRESS+y+el+AICc+corregido.+Los+resultados+demuestran+que+el+R%C2%B2+es+un+indicador+sesgado+del+rendimiento+predictivo+cuando+p%2Fn+%E2%89%A5+0%2C4.+El+modelo+c%C3%BAbico+(R%C2%B2+%3D+0%2C971)+presenta+un+error+de+predicci%C3%B3n+fuera+de+muestra+seis+veces+mayor+que+el+del+modelo+lineal+(PRESS+%3D+2%2C61+%C3%97+10%E2%81%B6+frente+a+4%2C31+%C3%97+10%E2%81%B5)+y+genera+pron%C3%B3sticos+f%C3%ADsicamente+imposibles.+Todos+los+criterios+convergen+en+el+modelo+lineal+como+la+especificaci%C3%B3n+%C3%B3ptima.+Se+proporcionan+proyecciones+para+el+periodo+2025-2030+con+intervalos+de+bootstrap+param%C3%A9tricos+del+95+%25%2C+junto+con+un+flujo+de+trabajo+en+Python+totalmente+reproducible.&rft.publisher=Keiser+University+Latin+American+Campus%2C+San+Marcos%2C+Nicaragua&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by_nc_4&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fkurepository.keiseruniversity.edu.ni%2Fid%2Feprint%2F52%2F2%2FSMDepResAcadRes0011.pdf&rft.identifier=++Silwany+Garcia%2C+Sara+Samira+++Polynomial+Model+Selection+with+Small+Samples%3A+Fitting%2C+Generalization%2C+and+Cross-Validation+in+the+Analysis+of+International+Tourism+in+Nicaragua+(2020%E2%80%932024).++Discussion+Paper.+Keiser+University+Latin+American+Campus%2C+San+Marcos%2C+Nicaragua.++++(Unpublished)++